Quake 2003 Earthquake Scenario
| Information from the CISN | |
| Location: | 4 km ESE of Berkeley, CA
37.86 -122.24 |
| Mw: (Preferred) | 6.5 |
| Date & Time (Local): | 2003/06/02
00:06:00 |
| Date & Time (UTC): | 2003/06/02
07:06:00 |
| Depth (km): | 12.0 |
| Fault System: | Hayward Fault |
- Details
-
06/04/2003 06:00 PM: Aftershocks continued
to rattle nerves in the East Bay today. Although nothing over
magnitude 5 has been recorded in the last 24 hours, the
probability of a damaging aftershock in the next week is still
quite high - over 40%. UC Berkeley and USGS scientists are
studying the impact of this earthquake on the neighboring
Rodgers Creek fault. A number of recent studies have shown
that
large earthquakes increase the stress on some faults and
lower it on others, depending on the orientation of the faults.
Increasing the stress on a fault can move it closer to failure.
06/03/2003 06:00 PM: Many aftershocks of the M6.5 have been recorded in the last day and a half, including an M5.0 event this morning. Bay Area residents are likely to experience more aftershocks in the coming days.
06/02/2003 02:00 AM: A few hours ago, a magnitude 6.5 (Mw) earthquake struck along the northern Hayward fault. This is the largest earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta quake (Mw 6.9) and the first to rupture the northern Hayward fault since the mid 1700s.
The earthquake initiated 4 km ESE of Berkeley and ruptured toward the north, with a strike-slip mechanism. Approximately 35 km of the fault are estimated to have ruptured, with an average of 0.5 m of slip. This is large enough to have ruptured some fault-crossing facilities.
At this point in time, we anticipate that this event will be followed by numerous aftershocks. The probability of a strong and possibly damaging aftershock in the next 7 days is greater than 90%.
- USGS/UCB Press Release
- USGS/UCB Aftershock Probabilities
- UCB Moment Tensor Solution
- Ground Motions
-
The CISN Northern California Management Center produces ShakeMaps for events of M3.5 and higher. ShakeMaps are based on the observed ground motions from seismic instruments combined with predicted motions in areas without sensors. These maps show the distribution of strong shaking.
- Maps
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- Waveforms
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These links will take you to seismocams showing current earthquake activity.
- Damage and Loss Estimates
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Based on preliminary runs of HAZUS by the Office of Emergency Services for Alameda and Contra Costa counties, the economic losses from this earthquake are currently projected at over $5.5 billion. HAZUS estimates for casualties, short-term shelter needs, and damage to hospitals, schools, and bridges are available as PDF maps.
- Information on the Hayward fault
-
In April 2003, the USGS-led study of earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Area estimated that this segment of the Hayward fault had a 12% probability of a major earthquake, part of the overall probability of 62%. For more information on the Hayward fault and current research, please follow the links below:
- Information on Quake 2003
-
The Quake 2003 M6.5 scenario is approximately 3 times smaller than the recent M6.8 earthquake in Northern Algeria in terms of the energy released.
THIS IS A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE FOR USE DURING
UC BERKELEY'S
EARTHQUAKE TRAINING EXERCISE
THIS EVENT IS A SIMULATION.
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Copyright 2003, The Regents of the University of California.
Last modified: Thu Jul 24 09:40:08 PDT 2008